Citi raised its target prices for three of the four Greek systemic banks, as the impact of the new government measures on bank commissions is considered limited. Despite the banks' new obligations, such as the €100m contribution for school construction, the house remains optimistic, maintaining its buy recommendation on all bank stocks. In particular, it gives the following target prices:
- Eurobank: €2.80 (from €2.30 before)
- National Bank: €9.50 (from €9.45)
- Piraeus Bank: €5.40 (from €5.20)
- Alpha Bank: €2.35 (unchanged)
EUROBANK
Citi adjusted its estimates due to recent transactions that increased Eurobank's stake in Hellenic Bank to 93.5%, reducing minority profit leakage. Despite the new regulation on commissions (negative impact of €20m per year from 2025), earnings forecasts increase by 11%-17% until 2026.
NATIONAL BANK
The bank posts positive operating performance, with Citi raising its dividend distribution forecast to 50% for 2024. Despite a 2% reduction in earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026, solid performance and accelerated amortization of deferred tax credits (DTCs) led to the target price upgrade.
BANK OF PIRAEUS
The operating performance adjustment and the dividend increase from 30% to 35% for this year and 50% for 2025 offset the impact of the new measures. Citi estimates a small 1% earnings decline for 2026, but maintains a strong upside outlook for the stock.
ALPHA BANK
Despite an estimated negative impact of €19m on fee income from 2025, Citi maintains an unchanged target price of €2.35. The increase in the projected dividend distribution to 50% from 45% for 2024 reinforces the bank's positive outlook.
