Uncertainty about the expected short-term course of the Greek market decreased in May compared to the end of the previous month, with fluctuations within the month, according to the KEPE's fear index.

The KEPE GRIV index decreased in May 2024, reaching 24.32% on May 31, 2024, from 26.70% on April 30, 2024. Moreover, the average daily value of the index decreased, reaching 25.83% in May 2024, from 26.32% in April 2024. The index remained below its historical average level (since January 2004) for the Greek market, which stands at 32.20%. 

The evolution of the index indicates a decrease in uncertainty for the expected short-term course of the Greek market compared to the end of the previous month, with fluctuations within the month.

The KEPE Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) is constructed based on a dynamic factor model, using six
selected monthly economic series assumed to have leading properties. It provides early evidence on the
course of and any turns in Greek economic activity, ahead of the developments in major economic
aggregates.

According to the most recent observation for February 2024,2 the CLI recorded an increase,
following the increase of the preceding period of reference, and remains at high levels for the total period of investigation. The respective development seem to confirm the interruption of the recent downward trend of the CLI and the transition to a rising path. As a result, it reflects a further enhancement of expectations and assessments by agents involved in economic activity, again offering leading indications for an intermediate improvement in future economic conditions. On that basis, any adverse impact due to the rise of geopolitical risks is not considered to be predominant. In order to acquire additional evidence, it becomes necessary to re-estimate the CLI. The inclusion of new data is expected to offer further information regarding the course of future domestic economic activity.