The fear index declined in June, according to data released by the Centre for Planning and Economic Research (CPER), which closely monitors the economic situation.

The KEPE GRIV implied volatility index, or "fear" index, captures the uncertainty of derivatives market participants about the expected short-term course of the Greek market and is calculated on the basis of the prices of options on the FTSE/X.A. Large Cap index. The KEPE GRIV index price decreased in June 2024, reaching 23.10% on June 28, 2024, from 24.32% on May 31, 2024.

In addition, the average daily price of the index decreased, reaching 25.68% in June 2024 from 25.83% in May 2024. The index remained below its historical average (since January 2004) for the Greek market, which is 32.18%. The evolution of the index reflects a decrease in uncertainty about the expected short-term path of the Greek market compared to the end of last month, with fluctuations within the month.

The Composite Forecast Index (CPI), based on a dynamic factor model, is constructed using six selected monthly economic variables with forecasting characteristics.

It provides leading indicators of the path and shifts in Greek economic activity before they are reflected in the current measures of aggregate economic activity.

According to the most recent observation for March 2024, the CPI has risen, following the rise of the previous reference period, reaching a new peak level for the entire examination period. The continued favourable trend in the PPP reflects the strengthening of expectations and assessments of economic activity participants, providing leading indicators of improved future economic conditions.

On this basis, any adverse effects stemming from persistent inflationary pressures and geopolitical risks are not considered to prevail. In order to obtain additional evidence, a reassessment of the SGP becomes necessary. The incorporation of new data is expected to provide additional information regarding the path of future domestic economic activity.