Swiss bank UBS starts covering Greek banks with a "buy" recommendation, as analysts say Greek banks are emerging from the more than a decade-long crisis with momentum and can benefit from the growth of the economy by providing credit to Greek companies. 

According to BnB Daily, the UBS stresses that the business plans of the banks' managements are positive and attest to the dynamic growth of the sector, and sets the following target values:

• Alpha Bank: €2.3
• Eurobank: €2,6
• National Bank: €2.2 billion
• Piraeus Bank: €5.5

THE TWO TOP PICKS

The house singles out the following banks:

• NBG because it has a strong network, high profitability, and capital adequacy.
• Piraeus Bank for its solid profitability and strong retail deposit and corporate loan franchise

THE SECTOR IS ATTRACTIVE

UBS stresses in its report that Greek banks:

• offer attractive capital growth of 26%–51%
• can pay satisfactory dividends
• Expect significant capital gains backed by strong profitability in 2026, with a ROTE ratio of 13–20%.

Analysts estimate that the capital available for distribution by 2026 could reach 60% of market capitalisation. "The risk of further losses from NPEs has now receded to 4.4%, while deferred tax credits (DTCs) in CET1 capital are also expected to fall from 58% to 35% in 2026," UBS highlights.

GREEK ECONOMY AND LOANS

UBS notes that the Greek economy will continue to grow at rates above the Eurozone and maintains its forecast for GDP growth of 2.5% in 2024 and 3% in 2025. In fact, the analysts stress that banks are expected to provide credit to businesses, while the Recovery Fund will play an important role in stimulating investment.