Measures to curb tax evasion are filling up the state coffers and creating new data on fiscal policy and the targets set for primary surpluses and debt in the coming years. Already, according to the data on the implementation of the seven-year budget, in the eight months the revenue overrun amounted to EUR 1.9 billion, while according to the latest estimates of the economic staff, in the coming years the revenue surplus is expected to reach €2-2.5 billion on an annual basis.

Αccording to Athens News Agency, new fiscal landscape will be reflected in the 2025 budget projections to be submitted to Parliament in early October as well as in the 2024-2027 medium-term program under discussion with Brussels, which is expected to be finalised within the next month.

In his remarks to Bloomberg last week, Finance Minister Kostis Hatzidakis hinted at these encouraging developments by announcing that this year's primary surplus will be higher, at 2.4% of GDP, than the initial forecast of 2.1% of GDP.

The finance ministry's primary surplus targets for the coming years are reportedly expected to be at similar levels, raising the bar compared with the medium-term program's projections so far (2.1% of GDP).

These developments, combined with the fact that Greece is growing at a rate well above that of other EU countries, give room for greater flexibility to the economic staff on expenditure policy without compromising fiscal discipline policy and favour the debt reduction effort. It is indicative that due to the revenue overrun, the Prime Minister's announcements at this year's TIF included an additional EUR 500 million package of relief and aid in full agreement with the European Union.

"Due to the better-than-expected budget performance, we can have a higher increase in spending compared to initial estimates," Hatzidakis said in an interview with Bloomberg.

Greece will be able to increase its net spending by "a little higher than 3%" in 2025—compared with the initial forecast of 3%—and continue to increase it at a similar pace until the end of 2028, the minister explained.

As for the public debt, the Finance Ministry now forecasts a reduction of 20 points by the end of 2028. From the 152.7% of GDP level expected this year, it is estimated to be reduced to 130% of GDP, which significantly increases the chances of Greece moving down from the highest rung of the EU countries with the highest debt as a percentage of GDP. 

In this context, the government is planning a new early repayment of loans from the bailout program totalling €8 billion ($8.9 billion). This will be the third early repayment of the loan Greece received in the first bailout program in 2010, known as the Greek Loan Facility.

On the tax evasion front, two important interventions that have given a big boost to government revenues are, on the one hand, the new way of presumptive determination of the income of self-employed persons and, on the other hand, the matrix of measures implemented for digitisation and the use of new technologies by the Hellenic Tax Administration for the capture of taxable material. Among these measures are the connection of cash registers with POS and the expansion of electronic transactions, such as the use of tax data from the My DATA platform that allows the automation of tax audits.