As of Sunday, 6 October, the keys of Attiki Odos are transferred to GEK Terna. Completely different from the previous contract—the 25-year concession—which includes, among other things, the possibility of listing the operator on the Athens Stock Exchange.
In mid-February, George Peristeris admitted (during the analysts' briefing) that "studies are being carried out on how the sector could be exploited financially.". This, according to the group head, could be done through a spin-off of GEK Concessions with a simultaneous listing on the Athens Stock Exchange. The timing of "realised" (instead of e.g., planned to...) reinforces those industry players who have long seen in the "concessions" sector a huge "generator of (super) value generation" of immediate liquidity.
According to the concession agreement, GEK Terna has the possibility to activate the relevant procedure (listing on the stock exchange) from the very next day, i.e., Monday, 7 October. Is this a possibility? Obviously not, as he noted in a conference call (last Friday) that "the contribution of the concessions business to the group's financial performance will increase significantly in the coming periods with the commercial operation of various projects.". It doesn't get any clearer than that, and how, when the dividends from the road concessions alone are estimated at €8 billion (!)—until their expiry—and possible contribution to a portfolio of new projects (e.g., Castelli, Hellinikon, thermal energy, waste, etc.), the whole project takes on a different dimension.
How much could a (potential) IRO of the Attiki Odos alone be priced? Combined with the maturity of the contract, let's say 2025, the first year of operation/management by GEK Terna. We will have to go back earlier, to 2007, when a well-known deal maker proposed to the then-mmain shareholder of Hellaktor Group (George Bobolas) the disposal of shares of Attiki Odos, which, in terms of market value, would reach €500 million. Half a billion euros back then, in 2007, for only part of an asset that today for GEK Terna is several times bigger. Half a billion in dividend income alone in the 5-year period 2019-2023 (for the Ellaktor-Aktor Concessions k/x), with the metrics (circulation, turnover, net profit) in double-digit growth. A
parameter that further enhances the rating of Attiki Odos is that, according to bankers, "it is a low-risk project with stable yields and high resilience, as demonstrated both during the memorandum crisis and the pandemic due to COVID-19.". Sources in the group's management estimate that, under CEC Terna's management, it can generate an average EBITDA of more than €300 million per year! What does this mean? Either independently or integrated into a wider portfolio of concessions, Attiki Odos can have a credit rating better than that of the Greek government. Comparative advantage of a cash cow operator—cash generation at the end of the day, as analysts typically specify. Practically, the (potential) cost of borrowing/financing/active capital lines, etc. in a possible (theoretical) recourse to domestic banking would be at a capital charge just above the base rate.
For when do they (analysts) estimate a (potential) IPO? George Peristeris himself displays the time horizon. "With the opening of the Attiki Odos concession in the latter half of the year, the Natural Gas Power Plant in Komotini will begin to operate commercially, and the Egnatia Odos concession will begin in 2025. Other significant milestones in the concessions sector include the construction of the New International Airport in Kastelli in 2026–2027 and the Integrated Tourist Complex in Elliniko in 2028.
