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Economic sentiment indicator improves in September as industry strengthens | TheGreekDeal.com
Foundation for Economic & Industrial Research
Economic sentiment indicator improves in September as industry strengthens
Economic sentiment improved in September, with the relevant index coming in at 110.2 points from around 106 points in July and August.
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Economic sentiment improved in September, with the relevant index coming in at 110.2 points from around 106 points in July and August. 

According to an Foundation for Economic & Industrial Research (IOBE) economic sentiment survey, this strengthening came exclusively from industry, with the remaining three sectors and the consumer confidence index weakening. Industry is the sector that, due to its greater extroversion, even in medium-sized companies, is more closely linked to the international environment and markets and relies to a significant extent on medium-term contracts and orders that are not so affected by cyclical uncertainties. In the global economy, even if there has been a significant slowdown in growth, it appears that the cycle of rising interest rates has come to an end without driving economies into recession and is now beginning to reverse. On the other hand, other areas of business activity appear to be correcting the relatively optimistic outlook recorded in previous months and the corresponding upward trend.

According to IOBE, the summer period is ending with satisfactory results in tourism and positive multiplier effects in other various sectors of the economy. However, at the same time, inflation persists and continues to negatively affect consumer confidence, now constituting a problem that has structural rather than cyclical characteristics. In more detail:

  • In industry, the negative balance of estimates of orders and demand narrowed markedly, estimates of inventories weakened slightly, and positive forecasts for production in the coming months strengthened.
  • In construction, negative forecasts for business activity schedules strengthened significantly, while positive employment forecasts weakened.
  • In the retail trade, estimates for current sales are strongly strengthened, with the level of inventories escalating and forecasts for near-term sales growth remaining virtually unchanged.
  • In services, positive assessments of the current state of business are marginally reduced, while estimates of current demand weaken, with forecasts for the short-term evolution of demand declining sharply.
  • In consumer confidence, households' negative forecasts for the country's economic situation intensified, while their forecasts for their own economic situation strengthened accordingly. At the same time, forecasts for major purchases declined markedly, while the intention to save strengthened.
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