Starting from the basics, our insight approach today. In the Athens Medical Group, the Apostolopoulos family owns 44.68% of the share capital and the Germans of Aesklepeios own 36.35%, both 80.82% of the share capital, so the free float is less than 20%, a limit that according to the new framework on diversification the management should take care of accordingly.
A senior executive of the company had been asked about this issue (at the annual general meeting) and had clarified that there was no question of the company's exit from the SA or of its inclusion in the Surveillance Class. Indeed, he had added that a solution was in the pipeline, the content of which would be announced in due course.
Two weeks later, and in response to reports in the electronic press, the management categorically denied that there was any question/concern about a public proposal (for an exit from the Athens Stock Exchange). That was in mid-July, and since then there has been silence regarding the expansion of the free float. Besides, the timing of the implementation of the relevant provisions (by the head of the HSE) and the "controversial" rate do not work as pressing. Obviously, a way to allocate 2%–4% will be found.
What is interesting is that developments on another front—in a way parallel to the interests of Medical—namely CVC Capital's contacts with Arabic-interest funds for the possible disposal of part of the healthcare portfolio—are at a fairly advanced stage. A party with knowledge of the negotiations between Hellenic Health Group executives and the Arab fund believes that it is very likely that the finding of a solution for the free float of the Iatric Athens Medical Group's share capital will coincide with the change of ownership of part of the hospital/clinic/diagnostic centre portfolio. The investment time maturity of CVC Capital in the Greek market (remember they also acquired Ethniki EGA at ultra undervalued cost) has been completed (since the acquisition of Hygeia) and has yielded multiple (of acquisition cost) revenues/goodwill and since 2023 they are in search of a potential buyer. Could the Apostolopoulos side acquire part of the portfolio? categorically not, according to a person who is familiar with the background, firstly because CVC Capital set a price of at least €2 billion for the entire portfolio and about €1 billion for the matter it is discussing with the Arabs.
On the other hand, the Apostolopoulos side, with much lower costs, is investing with a logic of autonomous growth, with moves on various (and partial) fronts. I will refer to an earlier speech of Dr. Vassilis Apostolopoulos (July 2023) when he prioritized the large investment in the oncology of Thessaloniki (placing it in a broader context for further development in Northern Greece), investments in the field of medical technology, as well as the development of synergies with third parties (e.g. he maintains a strategic partnership with Biomedical, the leader in primary care), etc. It has, since then, made clear its focus on further expanding the group's footprint in the industry.
With the possibility of a shakeup in the wider (private) healthcare sector in 2025 as the most likely scenario, it remains to be seen what policy the group's management will pursue—in case part of HHG's portfolio passes into Arab hands. In lieu of other scenarios, I will recall the listed company's cooperation with Egypt. Dr. Mustafa Mandbuli, the Prime Minister of Egypt, welcomed Dr. Vasilis Apostolopoulos in early January 2024, officially signing the memorandum of understanding between the two parties (on September 13, 2022).
