With primary surpluses at 2.1% of GDP by 2029, Greek debt will fall below 140% of GDP shortly before the end of the decade, the International Monetary Fund predicts in the latest edition of its Fiscal Monitor report.

In particular, the IMF expects Greece to run a primary surplus of 2.1% of GDP every year from this year to 2029.

This means that debt, which according to IMF indicators had peaked at 213.2% of GDP in 2020, will fall to 159% this year, 152.9% in 2026, 149.1% in 2026, 145.4% in 2027, 142.3% in 2028, and 139.4% in 2029.

The fiscal deficit is expected to be 1% of GDP this year, 0.9% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026, 1.3% in 2027, and 1.5% in 2028 and 2029.

Note that in its World Economic Outlook report, published yesterday, the International Monetary Fund expects the Greek economy to grow by 2.3% this year (from 2% previously forecast in April) and 2% in 2025 (from 1.9% previously). The Fund is talking about a slowdown in inflation to 2.9% this year and 2.1% in 2025.

The current account deficit is expected at 6.5% of GDP for 2024 and 5.3% for 2025, with unemployment at 10.5% and 10.1%, respectively.