The Commission estimates that the Greek economy will close 2024 with growth of 2.1% and inflation at 3%, with 2025 bringing growth of 2.3% and inflation at 2.4%. For 2026, the Commission's autumn estimates call for growth of 2.2% and inflation at 1.9%.

The Commission predicts unemployment to fall to single-digit levels by 2025 (10.4% for 2024, down to 9.8% for 2025 and 9.2% for 2026). Debt is expected to fall from 153.1% of GDP this year to 146.8% in 2025 and 142.7% in 2026.

STRONG RECOVERY

According to the Commission, the Greek economy experienced solid growth of 2.1% in the first half of 2024, with net exports also contributing to growth. Following minimum wage increases, private consumption benefited from relatively faster wage growth for lower-income households, which tend to have a higher propensity to consume. kathimerini.gr noted.

Investment in equipment accelerated alongside a strong rebound in corporate credit growth, while rising imports accompanied by sluggish export growth led to a decline in net exports. Thanks to strong domestic demand, real GDP growth is expected to average 2.1% in 2024.

Strong real income growth will support private consumption's continued expansion at a rapid pace. Investment is projected to accelerate further, peaking close to 9% in 2025, as the implementation of the recovery plan increasingly shifts from reforms to investment and financing conditions improve.

While this is happening, structural reforms aimed at enhancing export performance and rising cost competitiveness accumulated in the past should support export growth. Import growth is projected to remain strong, given the high content of investment in imports. Overall, GDP growth is expected to remain above its long-term growth potential and is projected at 2.3 percent and 2.2 percent in 2025 and 2026, respectively.

LABOUR MARKET

The employment rate increased to 54.9% (persons aged 15–74) in seasonally adjusted terms in the second quarter of 2024, but remains one of the lowest in the EU

The unemployment rate fell to 9.5% in August, although it remains one of the highest in the Union. Vacancy rates increased further in the first half of 2024, particularly in the construction, tourism and high-skill sectors.

Employment growth is expected to continue, albeit at a slower pace, as skills mismatches and structural problems, including a lack of solutions for childcare and elderly care or a strict regulatory framework for part-time work, limit labour supply growth.

The unemployment rate is projected to fall to around 9.0% by 2026, the lowest level in a decade. Real wages per worker are expected to increase by 1.1% on average per year over the forecast horizon, also supported by the reduction in the social security contribution.