UBS expects significant growth in the Greek economy, according to a report. The analysts note that growth rates will increase to 2.8% in 2025 from 2.5% in 2024, while they expect debt reduction to continue. The reason for this significant growth is found in the Recovery Fund allocations. This is because disbursements of the funds are expected to increase to 4% of GDP in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026, up from 2.3% in 2024. 

DEBT REDUCTION

UBS notes that debt will continue to decline and primary surpluses will be recorded. The primary surplus will reach 2.5% of GDP in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026. Analysts are led to this conclusion by the outperformance seen so far, with a primary surplus of €13.5 billion against a target of €4.7 billion and a primary surplus of €13.5 billion last year at ten months. 

In this context, UBS stresses that debt will fall at a faster pace. It will reach 152% of GDP this year, 146% by the end of 2025, and 140% of GDP at the end of 2026. This is because primary surpluses are being built and the government's planning is being done with fiscal balance and discipline. 

INCREASE IN JOBS

In addition, analysts point out that household consumption is expected to be stimulated, jobs will increase, as will disposable income. The increase in consumption will also result from lower contributions, higher pensions, and higher wages.