Fitch on Friday affirmed Greece's investment grade BBB with a stable outlook. It forecasts growth of 2.4% in 2025 and primary surpluses of 2% by 2026. Greece's ratings, the agency said, are supported by its level of per capita income, which exceeds the average level of BBB-rated countries, and governance indicators that are in line with those countries, as well as a credible policy framework supported by its membership in the EU and the euro area.

DEBT 

Fiscal and macroeconomic adjustment has accelerated in recent years, based on improving fundamentals and policy credibility. Fitch stresses that these strengths are accompanied by the legacies of the sovereign debt crisis, notably the very high but steadily declining debt-to-GDP ratio, as well as the significant loss of economic output, low investment rate, persistent external imbalances, and the legacy of past contingent banking sector burdens. 

FISCAL BALANCE

The Greek government has adopted a prudent fiscal stance, expecting sound fiscal policy to continue in 2025 and 2026. Greece has achieved a strong fiscal position after the pandemic and energy shocks, with a fiscal deficit estimated at around 1% of GDP this year. This is more favourable than the current median deficit of BBB-rated countries (2.6%) and is below the EU average (3.1%). Revenues are being boosted by improved tax collection, while spending is under tight government control. The agency forecasts the primary fiscal surplus to remain above 2% of GDP at least until 2026.

THE GOVERNMENT

Assesses the fiscal framework as "credible" and notes that: "The government's commitment to fiscal prudence was recently reinforced by the 2025 draft budget and the medium-term fiscal plan prepared in line with the revised EU fiscal framework. The government is committed to keeping the fiscal deficit well below 3 percent of GDP over the medium term and to ensuring a sustained reduction in the public debt ratio, based on a moderate path of primary expenditure growth."