Goldman Sachs maintains its positive stance on the economies of Spain, Portugal, and Greece for 2025 in a recent report. The catalyst for the distinction of these economies is the tourism sector, as increased tourist flows have improved the economic situation of these countries when other northern countries were reeling from inflation and the energy crisis. At the same time, the services sector has also developed.

THE EXTEMPTION

"While these features contributed to the faster recovery, the revival of service activity extended beyond the tourism sector, with average growth in high-value services such as real estate, financial services, technology, and telecoms almost double that of travel and hospitality, although Greece is the relative exception to this trend," Goldman Sachs explains. 

USA

Analysts also point out what possible US tariffs would mean for Europe. As they point out, tariffs on the automotive industry would bring a 0.5% hit to Eurozone GDP, while if Trump imposes a 10% across-the-board tariff, then the hit would reach 1%. Recall that the recovery of the eurozone is marginal, with many economists suggesting that it could turn into a recession if anaemic growth continues and is combined with US tariffs. 

MORE RESILIENT

In such a trade war scenario, Greece and other southern countries are more shielded than other eurozone countries. They have lower exposure to both US and Chinese industrial competition, which brings more resilient manufacturing activity. The most striking example is Greece, where manufacturing activity is now 20% above its 2019 level and competition from Chinese manufactured goods is the lowest among the three countries.

DEBT REDUCTION, GDP GROWTH

Another reason why Greece and the Southern countries stand out is the adjustment they have achieved in the previous cycle of the financial crisis. Debt, analysts say, is falling, surpluses are rising, GDP is strengthening, and employment is picking up.