The story of the Greek banks... NBG Securities, which believes they will outperform on the Athens Stock Exchange this year. It puts Piraeus Bank as its top pick, and the up-targets have upside potential approaching 50%.

The higher-target prices it gives for all banks are based on the business plans of the managements and the fact that the outlook is positive. Also, the risk premium has fallen by 30 basis points, and the shares are trading at a significant discount compared to peer banks abroad. The underperformance relative to peripheral banks is around 22%.

With a positive start to 2025, Greek banks have posted gains of 8%, outperforming both the Greek market and their peers by 4%. However, they are still trading at a discount that is not justified by fundamentals.

THE SELLERS

In terms of the catalysts for the growth of the domestic banking system, analysts point out:

• Dividend yields ranging from 7.5% to 9.8%, with an average of 8.5%
• Credit expansion
• The amortisation of deferred tax credits
• the reduction of the risk of the impact of the fall in ECB interest rates