The BoG expects economic growth to peak this year as GDP growth is expected to reach 2.5% from 2.3% in 2024. According to the Bank of Greece's forecasts, for the next two years, GDP growth is estimated to fall to 2.3% in 2026 and further to 2% in 2027.

However, as noted in the BoG's monthly economic bulletin, in 2025–26 the Greek economy will achieve a significantly higher growth rate compared with the euro area. The main drivers of economic activity growth will continue to be investment spending, thanks also to the contribution of European funds, and consumption benefiting from the strengthening of real disposable income due to continued employment growth and wage growth, minimum wage increases, as well as a reduction in inflation.

Moreover, according to the BoG, the expected reduction in the public debt-to-GDP ratio (below 150% of GDP) in 2025, alongside the achievement of primary fiscal surpluses, is expected to lead to further improvement in the investment climate and further upgrades of the sovereign credit rating.

The risks to the growth projections are mainly "downside" (i.e., leading to a slowdown in growth rates) and relate to:

• deteriorating economic sentiment in the euro area and the rest of the world
• an increase in protectionism and a worsening of the geopolitical crisis in Ukraine and the Middle East
• a lower than expected rate of absorption and use of Recovery Fund funds
• natural disasters linked to the impact of the climate crisis
• increasing tightness in the labour market
• delays in the implementation of reforms, which would slow down the process of enhancing the competitiveness of enterprises.
• On the contrary, stronger-than-expected tourism revenues could be a positive surprise for the growth rate of the economy. It is noted that in the period 2021-2027, Greece is entitled to receive more than €70 billion of EU funds. About half of these funds (€36 billion) come from the National Recovery Fund (NGEU). The rest are structural funds from the EU budget 2021-2027.

NGEU funds target high value-added projects that boost growth in the areas of energy saving, the transition to green energy, digital transformation of the public and private sectors, employment, social cohesion and private investment.

The BoG estimates that the full implementation of the EU recovery plan will contribute to a significant 7% increase in real GDP by 2026, mainly driven by an increase in total investment and total factor productivity.