Positive developments for Greece are noted in Allianz Trade's Atlas global country risk analysis, noting however, that there are significant challenges ahead.
According to the analysis, Greece's GDP is expected to grow in 2025 at a rate above the Eurozone average, supported by resilient private consumption and record tourism revenues of €22bn in 2024.In addition, fiscal discipline combined with the recent high inflation environment has reduced government debt from 209% in 2020 to 164% in 2023.
WHAT WILL JUDGE THE LONG-TERM POTENTIAL
Consequently, Greece has recently experienced a series of credit rating upgrades, after 13 years in the riskiest category. Looking ahead, effective leveraging of Next Generation EU funds and addressing structural obstacles will be crucial to sustain long-term momentum. Reducing the economy's dependence on tourism remains a critical part of the plan, it is noted.
Overall, it is noted that the global country risk showed significant improvement in 2024, with 48 economies upgraded and only 5 downgraded. However, each country's risk remains largely exposed to the geopolitical and financial tensions expected in the coming months, it is stressed.
THE CHALLENGES OF 2025
According to Allianz Trade, several factors could disrupt the positive momentum in 2025-2026, including:
- Geopolitical tensions: social, political and institutional conflicts intensified in late 2024
- Trade war risks: increasing protectionism and the possibility of full-scale trade conflicts
- Political unrest and polarisation: increasing polarisation in advanced and emerging markets
