Goldman Sachs is upgrading its target prices for Greek banks, stressing that the fact that they are trading at a is the main attraction of the sector to investors, while dividends and the faster repayment of discount deferred tax assets are also boosting the positive outlook.

According to the US bank, Greek bank stocks have gained 24% in the last two months (vs. 12% for SX7P) and now trade on average in P/TBV terms (2025/26) at 0.83x/0.73x. Their outperformance versus their European counterparts is partly driven by expectations of higher interest rates, with Greek 10-year bond yields (GGBs) and German Bunds rising by 40bps/30bps over the same period. Notably, Greek banks are more sensitive to interest rate fluctuations than other Eurozone banks.

RECOMMENDATIONS AND PRICE TARGETS

In this context, a buy recommendation with target prices is given:

• Eurobank: €2.8 (from €2.5)
• National Bank: €10.7 (from €10.6)
• Piraeus: €5.7 (from €5.4)
• Alpha Bank: €2.4 (from €1.9)

EUROBANK

According to Goldman Sachs, Eurobank has strong fundamentals (ROTE for 2025-2028 of 14.4, CET1 ratio of 18.0%, NPE ratio of 2.7%). However, NIM sensitivity to interest rate cuts has increased due to the acquisition of Cyprus-based Hellenic Bank. The stock has already outperformed relative to other Greek banks (+25% return over the last 12 months vs. +12% average Greek banks and P/TBV for 2025/2026 of 1.0x/0.9x, which is in line with European banks for the same level of ROTE).

NATIONAL BANK

National Bank combines high ROTE and strong capital adequacy (ROTE 2026 ~13%, CET1 2026 19.4%, highest among Greek banks, NPE coverage ratio: >100%). The stock trades at a discount compared to emerging markets (GEM banks).

PIRAEUS

Piraeus' stock trades at attractive levels (in terms of P/TBV in 2025 0.7x) while offering a ROTE for 2025-28 of 13.6%. It also has positive capital adequacy and asset quality ratios (CET1 for 2026 15.7%, with ~50% payout ratio; and NPE ratio 2.4%, NPE coverage >100%).

The bank offers a similar yield profile to European banks but trades at a ~28% discount based on P/TBV in 2026, which Goldman Sachs considers unjustified.

ALPHA BANK

According to the US bank, Alpha Bank shows the highest resilience relative to other Greek banks in terms of ECB rate cuts (net interest margins are estimated to fall 25 bps, just a 2 bps impact on NIM, vs. a 4 bps average for Greek banks).

At the same time, it has a high proportion of time deposits, which, in the event of another rate cut, will act as a protective shield. In this context, for the period 2024-2026, a 14 bps compression of the NIM is foreseen (compared to the 41 bps average for Greek banks).

Also, the ROTE ratio is expected to gradually increase to 11%/11%/12%/13% for the period 2025-2028, compared to 13%/12.6%/13%/14% for Greek banks and 14% for European banks in the period 2025-2027. Notably, the stock trades at a significant discount (in P/TBV terms for 2025/26 0.6x/0.5x, vs. 0.8x/0.7x for Greek banks and 1.1x/1.0x for European banks).