The KEPE (Centre of Planning and Economic Research) Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) is constructed based on a dynamic factor model, using six selected monthly economic series assumed to have leading properties. It provides early evidence on the course of and any turns in Greek economic activity, ahead of the developments in major economic aggregates. According to the most recent observation for December 2023,2 the CLI recorded a marginal increase, following the increase of the preceding period of reference, and remains at high levels for the total period of investigation.

The respective developments seem to support the evidence in favor of the interruption of the recent downward trend of the CLI and the transition to a rising path. As a result, it appears to reflect an enhancement of expectations and assessments by agents involved in economic activity, offering leading indications for an intermediate improvement in future economic conditions. On that basis, any adverse impact due to the rise of geopolitical risks is not considered to be predominant. In order to acquire additional evidence, it becomes necessary to re-estimate the CLI.

The inclusion of new data is expected to offer further information regarding the course of future domestic economic activity.

The KEPE GRIV implied volatility index, also known as the "Fear" index, shows how uncertain people in the derivatives market are about how the Greek market will likely move in the short term. It is calculated using the prices of options on the FTSE/Athex Large Cap Index.

The KEPE GRIV index decreased in March 2024, reaching 22.40% on 28/3/2024, from 24.35% on 29/2/2024. Moreover, the average daily value of the index decreased, reaching 24.44% in March 2024, from 24.64% in February 2024. The index remained below its historical average level (since January 2004) for the Greek market, which stands at 32.25%. The evolution of the index indicates a decrease in uncertainty for the expected short-term course of the Greek market compared to the end of the previous month, with fluctuations within the month.