Goldman Sachs rates three Greek banks - National Bank, Eurobank and Piraeus - as "buy" and Alpha Bank as "neutral" in a report published today (16 April 2024), focusing on the sector's growth and dividend plans.

Target prices are set at EUR 10 for National Bank (up 34%), EUR 2.50 for Eurobank (+32%), EUR 1.95 for Alpha Bank (+19%) and EUR 5.30 for Piraeus (+35%).

According to Goldman Sachs analysis, Greek banks will continue their recovery in 2023, ending the year with an average ROE of 14%, CET1 ratio of 15.6%, NPE ratio of around 4% and coverage ratio of 66%.

These ratios are now within the range of "normal" average levels for banks in emerging markets as well as in Europe. It should be noted that all four banks talked about a stable outlook over the medium term, with dividends being an important part of their strategies over the 2024-2026 period, thanks to the restoration of capital buffers to healthy levels.

After a 10-year dividend pause, Greek banks plan to pay their first dividend in 2024 (for 2023 we expect a dividend declaration in Q2 2024) and target dividends in line with mid-European levels by 2026.