The current issue of Eurobank's 7 Days Economy newsletter explores the impact of Donald Trump's tariffs on Greek exports and the potential changes in our country's trade with the US as a result of the White House transition.
In particular, in the 11 months Jan-Nov-24, the weight of the US on total Greek merchandise exports was 4.8%, or €2,193.8m at current prices. However, apart from direct effects, the impact on the Greek economy of possible protectionist policies on the part of the US may also be indirect. Indirect effects may come from Greece's trade links with the European Union of 27 Member States, as around 20% of EU-27 merchandise exports are purchased by US entities.
According to the most recent merchandise trade data from the European Statistical Office (Eurostat), the value of Greek merchandise exports to the US in Jan-Nov-24 amounted to €2,193.8 million. Hence, the merchandise balance between Greece and the US was in surplus at €203.5 million. Among the individual categories of goods, foodstuffs and livestock recorded the largest surplus (€521.6 million), and fossil fuels, lubricants, etc. the largest deficit (-€399.0 million).
The share of the US in Greece's total merchandise exports stood at 4.8% in Jan-Nov-24, slightly higher compared to the long-term average (4.5%). For the whole of 2024, Greece's merchandise exports to the US are expected to reach 1.0% of GDP. In terms of individual commodity categories, the US share of Greek exports of food and live animals was 7.7% in Jan-Nov-24, followed by oils and fats of animal or vegetable origin (7.2%), machinery and transport equipment (6.5%), industrial goods classified mainly by raw material (5.1%), miscellaneous industrial goods (3.9%), fossil fuels, lubricants, etc. (3.8%), beverages and tobacco (2.6%), chemicals and allied products (2.1%), non-food raw materials other than fuels (1.5%), and goods and transactions not classified by category (0.5%).
Therefore, a possible increase in tariffs on products imported by the US from the EU-27 may negatively affect a part of Greek merchandise exports to the US. For 2024, Greek merchandise exports to the US are estimated at 1% of Greece's GDP, or €2.4 billion.
The extent to which Greek merchandise exports to the US will ultimately be affected will depend on the level of the possible increase in tariffs and the degree of sensitivity of Greek merchandise exports to the US to the increase in tariffs.
Apart from direct effects on Greek merchandise exports, the implementation of protectionist policies by the US may also have indirect effects on the Greek economy. These effects stem from the combination of trade links between Greece and the EU-27 and between the EU-27 and the US. In particular, in the 11 months Jan-Nov-24, the share of the EU-27 in total Greek merchandise exports was 55.3%, or €25.4 billion. (see Figure 3.1), and the corresponding US share of total EU-27 merchandise exports (excluding exports between the 27 Member States) was 20.6%, or €490.1 billion.
In this case, a possible increase in tariffs on products imported by the US from the EU-27 may negatively affect: 1) EU-27 merchandise exports to the US, 2) the incomes of EU-27 operators, and 3) Greek exports of goods and services to the EU-27. Finally, a part of Greek merchandise exports to the EU-27 are intermediate goods used in the production of final goods that the EU-27 exports to the US (participation of the Greek economy in European value chains). This is an additional channel through which there may be an impact on Greek merchandise exports.
