The Hellenic Fiscal Council (HFC) adopts the macroeconomic projections of the preliminary draft state budget 2025, while, as it announced, it finds that the fiscal targets are in full compliance with the new European economic governance framework in accordance with the requirements of Law 4270/2014.

The new European economic governance framework, which came into force in April 2024, focuses on the continued reduction of debt as a percentage of GDP in compliance with the benchmarks of 3% and 60% of GDP for deficit and debt, respectively. The main variable monitoring the above path is net primary expenditure.

According to the ΗFC, the 2025 Budget fully complies with these rules. General government debt is projected to decline from 153.7% of GDP in 2024 to 149.1% of GDP in 2025 and the fiscal deficit from 1% to 0.6%, respectively. Primary expenditure is not expected to exceed 2.6% in 2024 and 3.7% in 2025.

The NDP confirms that the assumptions made for macroeconomic and budgetary developments (growth for 2024 at 2.2% overall and for 2025 at 2.3% overall and a primary surplus of 2.4% of GDP and 2.5% of GDP, respectively) are consistent with the fiscal stability objectives. The above projections are in line with the medium-term fiscal framework of the MoF for the period 2025-2028.

A strengthening investment climate and strong growth momentum support the projected fiscal improvement for 2025. However, significant external risks, such as geopolitical uncertainty and economic developments at the European and international level, are factors of uncertainty.

Risks include: (a) the ever-increasing geopolitical uncertainty caused by the military conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine; (b) a larger-than-expected slowdown in the economies of Northern Europe, which are Greece's most important trading partners, could limit the country's ability to finance any additional emergency fiscal support measures, e.g., due to climate change; (c) unexpected difficulties in implementing structural reforms and addressing the demographic problem.