The Hellenic Fiscal Council (HFC) has completed its assessment of the macroeconomic projections of the Draft Budgetary Plan 2025 (DBP) submitted to the European Commission today, 15-10-2024. 

The NSC confirms that the assumptions made for macroeconomic and budgetary developments (growth for 2024 of 2.2% and for 2025 of 2.3% and a primary surplus of 2.4% of GDP and 2.5% of GDP, respectively) are consistent with the fiscal stability targets.

General government debt is projected to decline from 153.7% of GDP in 2024 to 149.1% of GDP in 2025 and the fiscal deficit from 1% to 0.6%, respectively. Primary expenditure is not expected to exceed 2.6% in 2024 and 3.6% in 2025 (3.7% reference value).

The above projections are in line with the medium-term Term Plan for 2025-2028 and the Preliminary Draft Budget 2025.

A better investment climate, growth momentum, declining inflation and unemployment, and rising disposable income all support the fiscal improvement predicted for 2025.

The other side notes:

(a) the ever-increasing geopolitical crisis with possible unforeseen pressures on migration flows, energy prices, tourism, supply chain disruptions and military spending.

(b) a deeper slowdown in growth in the northern European economies, with declines in export earnings, tourism, foreign direct investment, and consumer and business confidence. 

(c) natural disasters, often leading to unforeseen costs and

(d) rigidities in product and labour markets, affecting growth, employment and social cohesion.

It is a priority to accelerate the implementation of the planned reforms to increase the competitiveness of markets and improve productivity to bring it in line with the positive outlook for wage developments. The important challenge of designing and effectively implementing targeted fiscal interventions for those in need without compromising fiscal stability remains.