In a new report, Alpha Finance estimates that after another successful year in 2024 (+13.7%), the market dynamics will remain bullish in 2025, as it has entered a multi-year favourable cycle, supported by several positive factors. 

The main factor for the expected continuation of the rise is the valuation of the Greek market, which, according to Alpha Finance analysts' assessment, remains attractive both in relation to its long-term average and in relation to the international markets, compared to the Stoxx 600 and MSCI EM indices (discount 30% to 40%).

According to analysts' estimates, the market could rise 10-20% in 2025, assuming valuations converge over a 3-5 year horizon.

OPTIMISM 

Alpha Finance's analysis department believes that the rise in the Greek market will be based on a number of factors, the main ones being:

• the profitability of listed companies, which is expected to remain high
• higher dividend payments, particularly due to the expected dynamics of the banking sector
• improved liquidity conditions in 2025 compared to the previous year, which was characterised by increased placement/IPO activity,
• the government's reform efforts to support growth, at a time when the Athens Stock Exchange (ATEX) is on course to return to the developed market category

THE EXTERNAL ENVIROMENT

Conversely, Alpha Finance believes that the external environment remains the most important source of uncertainty. Global political and economic uncertainties remain high and, combined with geopolitical developments and the change of leadership in the US, increase the potential for volatility in financial markets, which could also affect the Greek market. 

THE TOP PICKS

Given the above, Alpha Finance analysts focus on companies that combine attractive valuations, high earnings and dividend yields, as well as potential catalysts for future growth. In the banking sector, Eurobank (target price €3) is considered one of the most attractive options, mainly due to the acquisition of Hellenic Bank, while Piraeus Bank (target price €5.3) also trades at an attractive valuation based on its profitability. 

BEYOND BANKS

Outside banks, Alpha Finance analysts single out Metlen (target price €47.7), which trades at an attractive valuation, while its plan to list on the London Stock Exchange in the first half of 2025 may act as an important catalyst, as well as Jumbo's shares, which are expected to benefit from positive macroeconomic factors in Greece and Romania, as well as from a possible normalisation in supply chains.