The Bank of Greece's assessment of cyclical systemic risks in Greece for Q1 2025 shows that these risks remain limited and that the risk environment appears neutral.

Against this background, the BoG maintains the countercyclical capital buffer rate for Greece unchanged at 0.25%, with an effective date of 1 October 2025.

It should be noted, however, that according to the assessment, the analysis of the additional indicators highlights the beginning of an accumulation of cyclical systemic risks in individual areas, such as the financing of non-financial corporations, residential real estate prices, and the current account balance, but overall confirms the assessment of the absence of excessive credit expansion.

More specifically, as the BoG reports, the quarterly assessment of the intensity of cyclical systemic risks and the adequacy of the countercyclical capital buffer ratio for Greece takes into account the standardised credit-to-GDP differential, the buffer guide and, most importantly, additional indicators of the accumulation of cyclical systemic risks.

The buffer guide, as defined in the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) Recommendation ESRB/2014/1, is "zero," given that the standardised credit-to-GDP differential has remained negative since Q3 2012 and, based on the latest available data, in Q2 2024 it stood at -31.8 percentage points.

In addition, the Bank of Greece is considering additional indicators for the build-up and accumulation of cyclical systemic risks related to credit developments, private sector debt, residential and commercial real estate, external imbalances, the banking sector and capital markets.

The analysis of the additional indicators highlights the beginning of a buildup of cyclical systemic risks in individual areas, such as the financing of non-financial corporations, residential real estate prices, and the current account, but overall confirms the assessment of the absence of excessive credit expansion.
In conclusion, cyclical systemic risks in Greece for Q1 2025 remain limited, and the risk environment appears neutral.