The four systemic banks are in the best shape in the last decade, according to Fitch Solutions, and the goal is to expand and accelerate their growth in the coming years. The outlook for this year is positive, which is expected to be reflected in the figures. 

Analysts point to the definitive turning of the page from the rocky years of the crisis to growth, as they note that Greek banks are now being wound down by continued losses, poor asset quality and red loans. As a milestone for this turnaround story, Fitch sees the disinvestment of the state as a milestone. 

FORECASTS

Fitch sees new loans and loan portfolio expansion in 2025, which had shrunk 59.2% from 2010 to 2024. Hercules securitizations are being completed and with the accelerator of the House of Moo II program, demand for loans from households will see growth in the coming months, while the clean-up of bad loans continues. 

PROFITS

Analysts stand by the fact that Greek banks' profitability has increased, noting that despite the reduction in interest rates, they will continue to outperform the average Eurozone bank. The industry's return on equity and return on assets has increased significantly since 2022 and is now significantly higher than the European average. 

THE GOVERNMENT'S MEASURES

Growth and credit expansion will partly offset the decline in interest income due to the ECB's interest rate cuts, but the government's measures are hurting banks' profitability. Fitch Solutions estimates the reduction for government-imposed fees at €100m, which will impact profitability in 2025.