At 2.3%, the KEPE estimates that the average annual GDP growth rate of the Greek economy for the whole of 2024. Regarding the outlook for 2025, estimates for the first half of the year point to the continuation of a stable growth path, with the relevant six-month GDP growth rate estimated at 2.1% compared to the corresponding period of 2024.

The Macroeconomic Forecasts Unit of the KEPE notes that taking into account the prospects and the challenges facing the European and Greek economies at the current juncture, as well as the evolution of recent economic data for Greece, uncertainties and risks from external, mainly external, factors remain quite significant, but no generalized trends can be discerned that point to significant deviations from the steady upward path of the Greek economy in the short term.

SIGNIFICANT BOOST FROM RECOVERY FUND

Consequently, in 2025 the Greek economy is expected to continue to grow at a rate above the European average, with this expectation being mainly due to the fact that there are conditions for strengthening domestic demand, both in the field of consumption, based on the prospect of further improvement in incomes, and in the field of fixed capital investment, with the help of the significant boost from the Recovery Fund. Moreover, the albeit gradual pick-up in EU growth is expected to provide support to demand for Greek exports of goods and services, while the positive outlook for GDP growth provides scope for a less restrictive fiscal stance, mitigating the burden of the fiscal adjustment on the growth rate compared to the previous year. On the other hand, the evolution of the rate of change in GDP will be influenced by the stock-flow, while the expected increase in investment is likely to impact imports, thus affecting the overall contribution of the external balance to growth.

As KEPE states, while it is clear that, progressively, the sustainability of Greece's economic growth will depend on the substantial upgrading of the contribution of fixed capital investment and exports to GDP, this year the strengthening of these figures can be significantly promoted through the rapid and efficient absorption of the Recovery Fund resources and the exploitation of export opportunities in Europe and third countries.